GOP strategist evaluates how Trump and Harris are navigating the campaign

For a closer look at how the Trump and Harris teams are navigating the campaign season, Geoff Bennett spoke with Republican strategist Mike Murphy. He is a longtime GOP adviser and media consultant who served as a senior strategist on John McCain’s presidential campaign and has also worked on campaigns for Mitt Romney and Arnold Schwarzenegger.
Geoff Bennett:
Let’s turn now to a veteran Republican strategist to take a closer look at how the Trump and Harris teams are navigating the weeks that remain in this election.
Mike Murphy is a veteran GOP adviser and media consultant who served as a senior strategist on John McCain’s presidential campaign and has also worked on campaigns for Mitt Romney and Arnold Schwarzenegger.
Thanks so much for being with us.
Mike Murphy, Republican Strategist:
Oh, thank you.
Geoff Bennett:
So, Donald Trump sounded pretty comfortable today about his Election Day prospects, that his campaign is doing really well in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona. Democrats acknowledge that they’re going to have to fight for every vote.
Kamala Harris, in speaking with Charlamagne today, said that this will be a tight race, but she says, “I’m going to win.”
What’s your assessment of this race three weeks out from Election Day?
Mike Murphy:
Well, I think it is an absolute 50-50 coin toss. She’s a little bit ahead in the national vote, but in our modern era, it’s quite possible to win the national popular vote and lose the presidency because of the way the Electoral College works.
So when you look at those key states, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and potentially North Carolina, Trump’s doing better there than he is nationally. And I think in the last seven or eight days, he’s gone from a tiny bit behind to a tiny bit ahead in many of those states. Some, he’s always been ahead.
So they’re upshifting at the Harris campaign, and they need to. I think they have kind of — this is all within the margin, but they have run out of steam a little and they know it. So you’re seeing her doubling down, increasing aggression, doing all the things the smart campaign does in this situation to close the race.
And she needs to.
Geoff Bennett:
Well, the Harris campaign, in talking with some Democratic operatives, they believe that they need to drive up Donald Trump’s negatives. That’s why they’re trying to goad him into another debate. They’re criticizing him for backing out of that “60 Minutes” interview, because they believe that the more the public sees of Donald Trump, the more the public will be reminded of why he wasn’t reelected back in 2020.
Do you agree with their theory of the case, or I guess, in this case, the theory of the race?
Mike Murphy:
I partially agree. I think it’s a bit of a dangerous game because Trump’s — the perception that Trump is pretty dug in. People don’t like Trump. They’re trying to find out if she is an acceptable alternative.
The main dynamic of this race is people are unhappy with the incumbent party. They think things were better off for them economically four years ago. If a Republican without the baggage of Donald Trump, which is epic, were running, that Republican would be well ahead right now.
So Trump is holding down the Republican opportunity. So, reminding people of all his problems and projecting them forward is good politics for them, but it’s secondary. The most important thing they have got to do is win the battle over defining Kamala Harris, who is far less known than Trump is.
Her numbers are more fragile. And if Trump defines her better than she defines herself, if they see her as a Biden sidekick and as part of that incumbent structure they want to throw out based on inflation and economic pain, she’s going to lose.
So it’s very seductive to make the supporters you already have happy by banging on the villain they already don’t like. She has to move the needle on her. Now, attacking Trump can do that comparatively. It can show her in charge. I like the new stepped-up things they’re doing, but they got a close to deal on her, which means she has to do more, get out there more because the campaign had a pretty weak schedule for the last 10 days.
Now they’re shifting forward. That is a good thing, but they need more of it, particularly convincing people she represents change from Biden and a better economic future, she is not more of the same.
Geoff Bennett:
Let’s talk about the ground game because the Harris campaign is running what I think is safe to call an expansive version of a traditional political field operation. The Trump campaign seems to be banking on this idea that the people who already voted for him will vote for him again, the folks who voted for him in 2020 will come out again.
And then they’re trying to reach sort of smaller groups of irregular voters. Compare and contrast their get-out-the-vote operations.
Mike Murphy:
Well, she has more of the traditional spend. She has more money, more resources. It’s a more professional campaign in many ways, but the ugly little secret of field in a presidential race, where turnout is generically high, far higher than like midterms, which are about a third less, turnout is not as important, because you already get a large, large percentage of vote going.
So it can be a useful builder at the edge, but only if you have a good message. If Kamala Harris can’t close the deal in the next 10 days with early voting starting to skyrocket, all the turnout in the world won’t save her.
On the other hand, Trump’s turnout operation is much weaker. But, again, he’s a known quantity, and Trump is being propelled by a force he didn’t create, the perception people have that things cost too much now, they were cheaper four years ago and we need a new economic manager. As much as they don’t like Trump, people think he did a better job running the economy than the Biden/Harris administration.
Now, she’s closed that gap some, but that is still the mighty force propelling Trump. And Trump may not need turnout to win, again, if she cannot convince people she’s the right kind of change.
Geoff Bennett:
So the Trump campaign strategy of trying to reach what some people call low-propensity voters, irregular voters, we can use the — like groups of young men, for instance. Trump has been doing a lot of podcasts aimed at young men. Do you think that will produce dividends?
Mike Murphy:
You know, I don’t think any of this stuff — it’s all feathers against a bowling ball. The big drivers here are, can Kamala Harris show us she’s out there earning it and connect to people that she’s the right kind of change, or can Donald Trump successfully prosecute the kind of generic case that these people, this administration, of which she is an integral part of, have done a terrible job in the economy, she is liberal and out of the mainstream, which is what a lot of his advertising beats her up on, and so you got to fire them and let me fix the economy?
That’s the epic battle here. All this other stuff is not unimportant, but it’s sort of at the margins. And, again, I think the biggest factor between now and Election Day is getting Kamala out of a little bit of this bubble they have had her on. Let her campaign. Create the music of the campaign that she is a happy warrior out there working hard dawn until dusk earning it.
That’s been missing the last 10 days. I think in the last two or three days they’re doing it. And I applaud that, because, without it, I don’t think they’re going to win.
Geoff Bennett:
Mike Murphy, a real pleasure to speak with you. Thanks for being with us. We appreciate it.
Mike Murphy:
Thank you.
Geoff Bennett:
And, tomorrow, we will speak with Democratic campaign strategist James Carville to get his take on the presidential race.